COVID-19 Resources:

We remain committed to serving our client/members during the COVID-19 outbreak. Click here for resources. 

Weekly Market Insights header image

Weekly Market Insights

The Markets (as of market close June 4, 2021)

Stocks were mixed last Tuesday to begin the holiday-shortened week. The Russell 2000 climbed 1.1%, the Global Dow added 0.6%, and the Dow eked out a 0.1% gain. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 each dipped 0.1%. Yields on 10-year Treasuries, the dollar, and crude oil prices advanced. Energy gained nearly 4.0% as the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase output in July. Real estate and materials also advanced more than 1.0%, while health care fell 1.6%. European markets closed higher for the fourth consecutive month as economies continue to show signs of recovery from the pandemic.

Stocks closed last Wednesday slightly higher as investors awaited the release of important employment data due later in the week. The energy sector continued to climb as crude oil prices jumped 1.5%, reaching $68.75 per barrel. Real estate, consumer staples, technology, utilities, and financials were the other market sectors to post gains. Materials dipped 0.9%. The Global Dow led the benchmark indexes, up 0.4%. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dow, and the Russell 2000 were little changed. Treasury yields fell, while the dollar was mixed.

The downward trend in unemployment claims wasn't enough to spur the market last Thursday. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here lost value, with the Nasdaq (-1.0%) and the Russell 2000 (-0.8%) leading the decline. Treasury yields, the dollar, and crude oil prices advanced. The market sectors were mixed, with utilities, consumer staples, health care, energy, and financials gaining, while consumer discretionary, technology, and communication services dropped.

Stocks climbed higher last Friday on the heels of decreasing unemployment claims and increasing hires. Tech and communication services led the sectors. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here gained value by the close of trading last Friday, led by the Nasdaq (1.5%), and followed by the S&P 500 (0.9%), the Dow and the Global Dow (0.5%), and the Russell 2000 (0.3%). The yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped 4.0% and the dollar lost nearly 0.5%. Crude oil prices continued to rise, climbing 0.7% on the day.

Last week ended with each of the benchmark indexes listed here scoring gains, led by the Global Dow, followed by the Russell 2000, the Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq. Favorable jobs data may have offset concerns of rising inflation for investors. Also of importance were reports that President Biden would accept a 15% floor on corporate taxes rather than raising the tax rate from 21% to 28%. The President also offered a $1 trillion infrastructure plan, down from $1.7 trillion originally proposed. Among the market sectors, energy again led the way, up 6.7% for the week, while consumer discretionary shares and health care fell. Crude oil prices have increased nearly 43.0% year to date.

The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.027 per gallon on May 31, $0.007 per gallon more than the prior week's price and $1.053 higher than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ended May 28, which was 358,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 88.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day, down from the prior week's average of 9.7 million barrels per day.

Market/Index

2020 Close

Prior Week

As of 6/4

Weekly Change

YTD Change

DJIA

30,606.48

 34,529.45 34,756.39 0.66% 13.56%

Nasdaq

12,888.28

13,748.74 13,814.49 0.48%

7.19%

S&P 500

3,756.07

4,204.11

4,229.89

0.61%

12.61%

Russell 2000

 1,974.86 2,269.15

2,286.41

0.76%

15.78%

Global Dow

3,487.52

4,064.85

4,111.49

1.15%

17.89%

Fed. Funds target rate

0.00%-0.25%

0.00%-0.25%

0.00%-0.25%

0 bps

0 bps

10-year Treasuries

0.91%

1.58%

1.56%

-2 bps

65 bps

US Dollar-DXY

89.84

90.04

90.13

0.10%

0.32%

Crude Oil-CL=F

$48.52 $66.64 $69.31 4.01% 42.85%

Gold-GC=F

$1,893.10

$1,907.40 $1,894.30

-0.69%

0.06%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week's Economic News

  • The employment data for May was very encouraging. There were 559,000 new jobs added in May, the unemployment rate declined 0.3 percentage point to 5.8%, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 496,000 to 9.3 million. These measures are down considerably from their recent highs in April 2020 but remain well above their levels prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (3.5% and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020). Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in public and private education, and in health care and social assistance. The number of those who permanently lost their jobs decreased by 295,000 to 3.2 million in May but is 1.9 million higher than in February 2020. The labor force participation rate dipped 0.1 percentage point to 61.6%, and the employment-population ratio rose by 0.1 percentage point to 58.0%. In May, 16.6% of employed persons teleworked because of the pandemic, down from 18.3% in the prior month. In May, 7.9 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic, down from 9.4 million in the previous month. Average hourly earnings increased by $0.15 to $30.33 in May, following an increase of $0.21 in April. Average hourly earnings are up 2.0% since May 2020. In May, the average workweek was 34.9 hours for the third month in a row.
  • Purchasing managers were bullish on the state of manufacturing in May. The IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ posted 62.1 in May, up from 60.5 in April — a new record high. Stronger client demand and a commensurate increase in new orders pushed output higher in May. Also, strong demand and supply constraints drove supplier prices higher, leading to the sharpest rise in cost burdens since July 2008. The rise in cost was passed on to customers, with the rate of charge inflation quickening to a record high.
  • According to the latest report from IHS Markit, the services sector experienced its fastest rise since October 2009. The record expansion in output was driven by an increase in new business, particularly in new export orders. Employment in the services sector also expanded, although firms reported having difficulties filling vacancies. Input costs increased, prompting service providers to pass on their higher costs to clients, with the pace of inflation quickening at the steepest rate since the survey began.
  • For the week ended May 29, there were 385,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised down by 1,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020, when it was 256,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims was 2.7% for the week ended May 22, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 22 was 3,771,000, an increase of 169,000 from the prior week's level, which was revised down by 40,000. For comparison, during the same period last year, there were 1,605,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the insured unemployment claims rate was 13.3%. During the last week of February 2020 (pre-pandemic), there were 219,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits was 1,724,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates in the week ended May 15 were in Nevada (5.5%), Rhode Island (4.6%), Puerto Rico (4.5%), Connecticut (4.3%), Alaska (4.2%), New York (3.8%), Pennsylvania (3.8%), Illinois (3.6%), California (3.5%), and the District of Columbia (3.5%). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ended May 22 were in Delaware (+2,187), Illinois (+1,688), Pennsylvania (+1,347), California (+773), and Rhode Island (+644), while the largest decreases were in Washington (-8,020), New Jersey (-5,290), Florida (-4,679), Ohio (-3,844), and Michigan (-2,605).

Eye on the Week Ahead

An important inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index for May, is available this week. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in April and are up 4.2% since April 2020. Information provided in this report is very important for investors and will likely be a market mover following its release.

 

The Markets (as of market close May 28, 2021)

Monday kicked off last week on a high note for stocks. Each of the benchmark indexes listed here posted gains, with the Nasdaq advancing 1.4% to lead the way. The S&P 500 gained 1.0%, the Russell 2000 climbed 0.6%, the Dow and the Global Dow each added 0.5%. Information technology and communication services led the market sectors, each rising 1.8%, followed by real estate (1.1%), energy (1.0%), and consumer discretionary (1.0%). The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 1.5%. The dollar slipped, while crude oil prices climbed 3.7%.

Stocks ended last Tuesday slightly lower as consumer confidence slipped amid concerns of rising inflation. The small caps of the Russell 2000 fell 1.0%, while the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Global Dow each dipped no more than 0.2%. The market sectors were mixed, with consumer discretionary, real estate, communication services, consumer staples, and information technology advancing, while industrials, health care, materials, financials, utilities, and energy slid. Treasury yields, crude oil prices, and the dollar declined.

Small caps and tech shares pushed the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq higher last Wednesday. The Dow and the S&P 500 closed slightly higher, while the Global Dow was unchanged. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell for the third consecutive day, falling below 1.6%. The dollar and crude oil prices advanced. Only health care and consumer staples failed to advance, as the remaining market sectors pushed higher, led by energy and consumer discretionary.

Last Thursday saw stocks close mostly higher, supported by a drop in initial jobless claims and solid economic data. The Russell 2000 led the way, closing up 2.0%, followed by the Dow (0.4%), the Global Dow (0.3%), and the S&P 500 (0.1%). The Nasdaq was unchanged from the previous day. Treasury yields broke a three-day trend, closing higher. Crude oil prices rose, while the dollar was mixed. Industrials and financials led the market sectors, with consumer staples, utilities, and information technology lagging.

Stocks closed generally higher last Friday with only the Russell 2000 losing value. The Global Dow advanced 0.4%, followed by the Dow (0.2%). The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each gained 0.1%. Treasury yields and crude oil prices lagged, while the dollar was mixed. Real estate and utilities led the market sectors, which otherwise closed the day mixed.

Although last week had its ups and downs, stocks closed generally higher. The Russell 2000 climbed 2.4%. Tech stocks drove the Nasdaq 2.1% higher last week, followed by the S&P 500, the Global Dow, and the Dow. Year to date, the Global Dow has outpaced the other benchmark indexes, with the Russell 2000 close behind. Gold prices continued to advance and crude oil prices climbed $2.80 per barrel. The dollar was little changed, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped. The majority of the market sectors increased last week with only consumer staples, health care, and utilities losing ground.

The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.020 per gallon on May 24, $0.008 per gallon lower than the prior week's price but $1.060 higher than a year ago. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.2 million barrels per day during the week ended May 21, which was 123,000 barrels per day more than the previous week's average. Refineries operated at 87.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day, down from the prior week's average of 9.8 million barrels per day.

Market/Index

2020 Close

Prior Week

As of 5/28

Weekly Change

YTD Change

DJIA

30,606.48

 34,207.84 34,529.45 0.94% 12.82%

Nasdaq

12,888.28

13,470.99 13,748.74 2.06%

6.68%

S&P 500

3,756.07

4,155.86

4,204.11

1.16%

11.93%

Russell 2000

 1,974.86 2,215.27

2,269.15

2.43%

14.90%

Global Dow

3,487.52

4,022.28

4,064.85

1.06%

16.55%

Fed. Funds target rate

0.00%-0.25%

0.00%-0.25%

0.00%-0.25%

0 bps

0 bps

10-year Treasuries

0.91%

1.63%

1.58%

-5 bps

67 bps

US Dollar-DXY

89.84

90.00

90.04

0.04%

0.22%

Crude Oil-CL=F

$48.52

$63.84 $66.64 4.39% 37.35%

Gold-GC=F

$1,893.10

$1,880.70 $1,907.40

1.42%

0.76%

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Last Week's Economic News

  • Gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021, according to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, GDP increased 4.3%. The GDP increase in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending), nonresidential (business) fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and exports. Imports, which are subtracted from GDP, increased. The rise in consumer spending reflected increases in durable goods (led by motor vehicles and parts), nondurable goods (led by food and beverages), and services (led by food services and accommodations). Consumer prices increased 3.7% in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 2.5%, compared with an increase of 1.3%.
  • In what may worry some investors, inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.6% in April, and is up 3.6% since April 2020. Prices, less food and energy, advanced 0.7% in April and 3.1% since April 2020. Personal income fell 13.1% in April as government subsidy payments and unemployment insurance decreased. Disposable personal income dipped 14.6% in April. Personal consumption expenditures (consumer spending) rose 0.5% in April.
  • Orders for long-lasting (durable) goods declined in April for the first time following 11 consecutive monthly increases. New orders in April fell 1.3% from the March total, but are 22.4% over the April 2020 estimate. Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods advanced 1.0% in April. Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged in April from the previous month. Transportation equipment, down two consecutive months, drove the April decrease, falling 6.7%. In April, shipments of durable goods increased 0.6%, unfilled orders rose 0.2%, and inventories climbed 0.5%. New orders for nondefense capital goods increased 3.5% in April, while new orders for defense capital goods fell 25.8%.
  • The easing of COVID restrictions may be having a positive impact on cross-the-border trade. The international trade in goods (excluding services) deficit in April was $85.2 billion, down $6.8 billion, or 7.3%, from March. Exports of goods for April were $144.7 billion, $1.7 billion, or 1.2%, more than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $229.9 billion, $5.1 billion, or 2.2%, less than March imports. Exports of capital goods rose 4.8% in April, while exports of automotive vehicles fell 8.0%. Imports of foods, feeds, and beverages increased 3.4%, while imports of consumer goods fell 4.2%.
  • New home sales dipped in April, according to the latest information from the Census Bureau. Sales of new, single-family homes fell 5.9% from the March estimate. Nevertheless, new home sales are up 48.3% from April 2020. Sales fell in the Northeast (-13.7%), the Midwest (-8.3%), and the South (-8.2%). New home sales increased 7.9% in the West. The median sales price of new houses sold in April was $372,400 (+11.4% from March). The average sales price was $435,400 (+8.7% from March). The estimate of new homes for sale at the end of April was 316,000, which represents a supply of 4.4 months (4.0 months in March).
  • For the week ended May 22, there were 406,000 new claims for unemployment insurance, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020, when it was 256,000. According to the Department of Labor, the advance rate for insured unemployment claims was 2.6% for the week ended May 15, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's rate. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the week ended May 15 was 3,642,000, a decrease of 96,000 from the prior week's level, which was revised down by 13,000. For comparison, during the same period last year, there were 1,887,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the insured unemployment claims rate was 13.2%. During the last week of February 2020 (pre-pandemic), there were 219,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the number of those receiving unemployment insurance benefits was 1,724,000. States and territories with the highest insured unemployment rates in the week ended May 8 were in Nevada (5.7%), Connecticut (4.5%), Rhode Island (4.5%), Alaska (4.3%), Puerto Rico (4.3%), California (3.9%), New York (3.9%), Pennsylvania (3.9%), Illinois (3.7%), and Vermont (3.6%). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ended May 15 were in New Jersey (+4,812), Washington (+3,023), Minnesota (+1,806), West Virginia (+907), and Rhode Island (+792), while the largest decreases were in Georgia (-7,392), Kentucky (-7,123), Texas (-3,881), Michigan (-3,560), and Florida (-2,994).

Eye on the Week Ahead

The labor figures for May are out this week. April saw 266,000 new jobs added, which was below expectations, but still encouraging. The May reports on the manufacturing and services sectors are also available this week. Purchasing managers saw favorable increases in both manufacturing and services in April.

 

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Prepared by Broadridge Investor Communication Solutions, Inc. Copyright 2021.
These materials are provided for general information and educational purposes based upon publicly available information from sources believed to be reliable — we cannot assure the accuracy or completeness of these materials. The information in these materials may change at any time and without notice. Market summaries contain information on the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, Global Dow, Federal Funds interest rate, and 10-year Treasury yields, as well as highlights of past and future economic data.

How can I help you?